I've tried to crunch the numbers the best that I can, but by no means are these numbers official. These are the best guesses I can make based on the 2006 enrollment numbers from the Wyoming Department of Education, available in PDF form by clicking here...

And based on those figures, this is how the WHSAA reclassification might shake out this fall.

Obviously, the WHSAA has a big proposal sitting in front of it, one that would allow it to use "natural breaks" in enrollment to best organize its classifications. If that motion fails, the WHSAA will stick with the 12-16-20-rest breakdown as the way to classify schools (as in 12 schools in Class 4A, 16 in 3A, 20 in 2A, the rest in 1A).

If that continues to stick, here's how the new classes could look:

Joining 4A: None. No changes anticipated to 4A.

Joining 3A: Mountain View and Thermopolis, up from 2A.

Joining 2A: Kemmerer and Lovell, down from 3A; Southeast and Normative Services, up from 1A.

Joining 1A: Guernsey, down from 2A.

Remember, Midwest was/is a 2A school by enrollment but successfully petitioned down to 1A... meaning 2A will have one more school in it for the next reclass cycle (barring another successful petition by another school). Also, the 2A-1A lines could be skewed a bit by Arapaho Charter (see below).

Here's my best guess at how the projected enrollments will stack up near the cut lines, with enrollment projections for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 school years averaged out:

4A/3A line
10. Green River 729.5
11. Star Valley 727.5
12. Riverton 721.5
-----
13. Jackson 675.0
14. Cody 657.0

3A/2A line
25. Mountain View 224.5
26. Lyman 215.0
27. Glenrock 207.5
28. Thermopolis 196.5
-----
29. Kemmerer 186.5
30. Lovell 186.0
31. Burns 185.0

2A/1A line
42. Lusk 109.0
43. Wind River 106.0
44. Arapaho Charter 101.5*
45. Shoshoni 101.0
46. Southeast 99.0
47. Lingle 95.5
48. Riverside 92.0
49. Normative Services 90.0
-----
50. Saratoga 79.0
51. Guernsey 71.0

(Arapaho Charter's projected enrollment by me is likely much higher than its actual enrollment or what its actual projection will be. Their most recent ADM was right around 88 students, and that's where I figure their projection will be, making it a 1A school and pushing Normative Services into 2A.)

Like I've said about seven times already, these aren't official numbers; they're projected from figures that are already close to two years old. But they do provide a good glimpse of what might be coming down the pipe come September when the official ADM figures are released.

For what it's worth....

Posted by patrick.schmiedt@trib.com