Sports Goulash | Reclass projections

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Sports Goulash

Odds and ends of Wyoming high school sports.

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Reclass projections

Posted by: Patrick Schmiedt on July 5, 2008 at 7:01PM EST

I've tried to crunch the numbers the best that I can, but by no means are these numbers official. These are the best guesses I can make based on the 2006 enrollment numbers from the Wyoming Department of Education, available in PDF form by clicking here...

And based on those figures, this is how the WHSAA reclassification might shake out this fall.

Obviously, the WHSAA has a big proposal sitting in front of it, one that would allow it to use "natural breaks" in enrollment to best organize its classifications. If that motion fails, the WHSAA will stick with the 12-16-20-rest breakdown as the way to classify schools (as in 12 schools in Class 4A, 16 in 3A, 20 in 2A, the rest in 1A).

If that continues to stick, here's how the new classes could look:

Joining 4A: None. No changes anticipated to 4A.

Joining 3A: Mountain View and Thermopolis, up from 2A.

Joining 2A: Kemmerer and Lovell, down from 3A; Southeast and Normative Services, up from 1A.

Joining 1A: Guernsey, down from 2A.

Remember, Midwest was/is a 2A school by enrollment but successfully petitioned down to 1A... meaning 2A will have one more school in it for the next reclass cycle (barring another successful petition by another school). Also, the 2A-1A lines could be skewed a bit by Arapaho Charter (see below).

Here's my best guess at how the projected enrollments will stack up near the cut lines, with enrollment projections for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 school years averaged out:

4A/3A line
10. Green River 729.5
11. Star Valley 727.5
12. Riverton 721.5
-----
13. Jackson 675.0
14. Cody 657.0

3A/2A line
25. Mountain View 224.5
26. Lyman 215.0
27. Glenrock 207.5
28. Thermopolis 196.5
-----
29. Kemmerer 186.5
30. Lovell 186.0
31. Burns 185.0

2A/1A line
42. Lusk 109.0
43. Wind River 106.0
44. Arapaho Charter 101.5*
45. Shoshoni 101.0
46. Southeast 99.0
47. Lingle 95.5
48. Riverside 92.0
49. Normative Services 90.0
-----
50. Saratoga 79.0
51. Guernsey 71.0

(Arapaho Charter's projected enrollment by me is likely much higher than its actual enrollment or what its actual projection will be. Their most recent ADM was right around 88 students, and that's where I figure their projection will be, making it a 1A school and pushing Normative Services into 2A.)

Like I've said about seven times already, these aren't official numbers; they're projected from figures that are already close to two years old. But they do provide a good glimpse of what might be coming down the pipe come September when the official ADM figures are released.

For what it's worth....

Posted by patrick.schmiedt@trib.com

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(4) Comments

Posted by: GoOrange on July 6, 2008 10:21PM EST

It's not the classification issue that is most important, it's the conference alignment that is most critical.

If 12 stay in 4-A, then the East/West alignment makes the most sense. Here is how West 4-A should look: GR, RS, Evanston, Riverton, Laramie, Star Valley.

East: Cheyenne(s), Casper(s), Gillette, and Sheridan. Wait - that is what the WHSAA APPROVED once before. If maximum time in the classroom and the least amount of travel is important... in other words, if we care about the STUDENT in ATHLETE, then this is the best alignment I can see. If Cody and Jackson join in, then EAST/WEST is a must.

Let's not toss out the idea of playing once a year at a neutral site if we have to. Maybe Laramie could play Star Valley in R.S. or Green River (even at the community college in R.S.). Soccer has played at neutral sites (East vs. Riverton boys and girls until this year with success).

Then, think outside of the box for regional tournaments - mix and match conferences... top 2 in east, stay in the east, 3 and 4 seed in the east could go to the west with the top 2 in the west. Then figure out the rest (5-6 in the east could go west, and the bottom four in the west could go to the east - or something like that). It is conference travel that is a killer. Ask NC. Ask Riverton. Ask Star Valley.

Name all-tournament teams if recognition is important.

This solution would require some flexibility - especially for regional tournaments. The host site must be flexible... teams may not know where they are going until a week or so before... but parents and fans could make plans - they would know the dates, just maybe not the destination until later in the season...

Posted by: Patrick Schmiedt on July 8, 2008 1:05AM EST

GoOrange, you bring up several good points here. The one I'm most curious about: If 4A stays at 12 teams, will the conferences remain in their current East-West alignment? Given how much trouble they were this year, my guess is no.... but my guesses are worth as much as anyone else's, which is zilch. :)

It'll be interesting to see if the WHSAA -- and, consequently, the school ADs -- try to get a little creative this fall. Of course, creative doesn't always mean feasible.

--patrick

Posted by: Patrick Schmiedt on July 8, 2008 1:07AM EST

Oh, and I missed Burlington when I did my lines up there. Burlington would actually come in as school No. 50 in my projections at about 82 average... but they'd still be 1A and it really wouldn't affect much.

--patrick

Posted by: HS Sports Fan on July 17, 2008 12:31PM EST

I still believe too much emphasis is placed on the number of teams in each classification. It should be about the # of students first, then if natural breaks compliment the # of teams in a class go with it. 14-16-?-? will not always work. Jackson & Cody shouldn't be in 4A but then again, I don't think it is fair to have Thermopolis playing them either.