(Stick with me now. This may seem confusing at first, but I'll clear it up at the end. Promise.)

With the recent WHSAA proposal to expand Class 4A to 14 teams, I think I've stumbled upon a solution that might help keep Jackson (now the unlucky 14th school) in Class 3A.

And all it would take is one more high school.

Right now, Teton County splits its elementary students into three schools -- two in Jackson and one in nearby Wilson. The two Jackson schools are split by grade, Jackson Elementary for grades K-2 and Colter Elementary for grades 3-5, but the Wilson school is an all-inclusive K-5 grade school.

In sixth grade, though, all the Teton County schools come together with Jackson Hole Middle School. They stay together there, and then they all go to Jackson Hole High School as freshmen.

About a quarter of Jackson's high schoolers come from the Wilson Elementary system. Using fall 2006 enrollment figures from those elementary schools (thanks, Wyoming Department of Education), a straight-up Jackson High School would have about 552 kids this year, while a Wilson High School, pulling kids from the Moran and Kelly elementaries, would have about 189. (That's a total of 741).

Last year, Jackson's ADM (the enrollment number the WHSAA uses for school classification) was 653.460. Obviously, there's a difference between my total and Jackson's projection, but that's not important. Instead, let's focus on what Wilson High School would create for the WHSAA -- a wee bit of chaos.

Even at the 552 mark, Jackson can't realistically be considered as a 4A school in Wyoming -- even though at 552 students, Jackson's spot in 14th place wouldn't change.

Now, let me explain that I'm not seriously advocating this. If a Wilson High School would have made any kind of sense, it would have happened by now. The folks up in Jackson are smart enough to realize when they need a new high school, and now clearly ain't the time. Wilson High School is only a figment of my imagination, and for now, that's where it should stay.

(OK, I promised this would all make sense and it'd be worth it to read all that. So, here goes....)

What this scenario does expose is the WHSAA's unclear definition of what will make up a classification in the upcoming cycle if this new proposal passes.

At 14th place, Jackson at 653.460 is big enough for 4A -- or it is, according to the WHSAA's proposal. But still at 14th place, Jackson at 552 wouldn't be, at least not according to a little phrase the WHSAA could be using to reclassify its schools this fall.

For the first time, the WHSAA could try and use something called a "natural break" to create its classifications. The "natural breaks" are part of a reclassification proposal that the WHSAA passed on first reading in April and will bring up again for discussion in September.

While the term "natural break" has no definition in regards to reclassification, its application could render some unwanted consequences. 

That whole "natural break" idea is extremely abstract, and defining it is tough for anyone. But now, that's suddenly the responsibility of the members of the WHSAA board of directors.

For now, the only definition that makes sense in this proposal is the term "no more than." As in, the proposal's wording calls for "no more than" 14 schools in 4A, "no more than" 16 in 3A and "no more than" 20 in 2A.

Combine those two phrases together, and the WHSAA could have more wiggle room -- and, consequently, more power -- than it has ever had before in regards to reclassification.

Without more clearly defined definitions of what constitutes a "natural break," the WHSAA is opening itself up to criticism on a subject that already has plenty.

(OK, point made. But I'm not done.)

By the way, I could have just as easily put forth this example with Star Valley.
 
My rough guesstimates, using census and school enrollment data, would put about 100-150 kids in grades 9-12 in a North Star Valley High School, a figure that includes the communities of Alpine, Etna, Freedom, Star Valley Ranch, Thayne, Bedford and Turnerville.
 
(As an aside, you'd HAVE to put that school in Thayne, right? And you'd HAVE to call them the Cheesemakers, right? Yeah, I know, the factory is closed, but for nostalgia's sake....)
 
Anyway....
 
Opening Thayne High School would put Star Valley High School at about 600 kids, dropping them from 12th to 14th overall on the WHSAA's enrollment list. Then, the question: where's the best "natural break"?
 
So would Cody, now 12th at 662.347, suddenly be big enough for 4A -- even though Riverton is 11th with the ADM of 739.501? Would Jackson at 653.460, be bumped up too? And is Star Valley at 600 big enough? Do you include Star Valley, Cody and Jackson in a 14-team 4A? Or only Cody and Jackson in a 13-team 3A? Or only Cody in a 12-team 4A despite a "natural break" between 11 and 12? Then, logistically, how do you organize an 11-school Class 4A?

Final summation? None, really. This is all guesswork right now. There is no guarantee the WHSAA board will pass the proposal that includes the "natural break" phrasing. And there's no guarantee on how the ADM numbers the WHSAA will receive in the fall will come together.

But somewhere, somehow, the perfect storm is brewing.

Maybe even in Wilson.

Posted by patrick.schmiedt@trib.com