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Sports Goulash

Odds and ends of Wyoming high school sports.

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Reclass, "natural breaks," gray area, new high schools...

Posted by: Patrick Schmiedt on June 7, 2008 at 11:02PM EST

(Stick with me now. This may seem confusing at first, but I'll clear it up at the end. Promise.)

With the recent WHSAA proposal to expand Class 4A to 14 teams, I think I've stumbled upon a solution that might help keep Jackson (now the unlucky 14th school) in Class 3A.

And all it would take is one more high school.

Right now, Teton County splits its elementary students into three schools -- two in Jackson and one in nearby Wilson. The two Jackson schools are split by grade, Jackson Elementary for grades K-2 and Colter Elementary for grades 3-5, but the Wilson school is an all-inclusive K-5 grade school.

In sixth grade, though, all the Teton County schools come together with Jackson Hole Middle School. They stay together there, and then they all go to Jackson Hole High School as freshmen.

About a quarter of Jackson's high schoolers come from the Wilson Elementary system. Using fall 2006 enrollment figures from those elementary schools (thanks, Wyoming Department of Education), a straight-up Jackson High School would have about 552 kids this year, while a Wilson High School, pulling kids from the Moran and Kelly elementaries, would have about 189. (That's a total of 741).

Last year, Jackson's ADM (the enrollment number the WHSAA uses for school classification) was 653.460. Obviously, there's a difference between my total and Jackson's projection, but that's not important. Instead, let's focus on what Wilson High School would create for the WHSAA -- a wee bit of chaos.

Even at the 552 mark, Jackson can't realistically be considered as a 4A school in Wyoming -- even though at 552 students, Jackson's spot in 14th place wouldn't change.

Now, let me explain that I'm not seriously advocating this. If a Wilson High School would have made any kind of sense, it would have happened by now. The folks up in Jackson are smart enough to realize when they need a new high school, and now clearly ain't the time. Wilson High School is only a figment of my imagination, and for now, that's where it should stay.

(OK, I promised this would all make sense and it'd be worth it to read all that. So, here goes....)

What this scenario does expose is the WHSAA's unclear definition of what will make up a classification in the upcoming cycle if this new proposal passes.

At 14th place, Jackson at 653.460 is big enough for 4A -- or it is, according to the WHSAA's proposal. But still at 14th place, Jackson at 552 wouldn't be, at least not according to a little phrase the WHSAA could be using to reclassify its schools this fall.

For the first time, the WHSAA could try and use something called a "natural break" to create its classifications. The "natural breaks" are part of a reclassification proposal that the WHSAA passed on first reading in April and will bring up again for discussion in September.

While the term "natural break" has no definition in regards to reclassification, its application could render some unwanted consequences.

That whole "natural break" idea is extremely abstract, and defining it is tough for anyone. But now, that's suddenly the responsibility of the members of the WHSAA board of directors.

For now, the only definition that makes sense in this proposal is the term "no more than." As in, the proposal's wording calls for "no more than" 14 schools in 4A, "no more than" 16 in 3A and "no more than" 20 in 2A.

Combine those two phrases together, and the WHSAA could have more wiggle room -- and, consequently, more power -- than it has ever had before in regards to reclassification.

Without more clearly defined definitions of what constitutes a "natural break," the WHSAA is opening itself up to criticism on a subject that already has plenty.

(OK, point made. But I'm not done.)

By the way, I could have just as easily put forth this example with Star Valley.

My rough guesstimates, using census and school enrollment data, would put about 100-150 kids in grades 9-12 in a North Star Valley High School, a figure that includes the communities of Alpine, Etna, Freedom, Star Valley Ranch, Thayne, Bedford and Turnerville.

(As an aside, you'd HAVE to put that school in Thayne, right? And you'd HAVE to call them the Cheesemakers, right? Yeah, I know, the factory is closed, but for nostalgia's sake....)

Anyway....

Opening Thayne High School would put Star Valley High School at about 600 kids, dropping them from 12th to 14th overall on the WHSAA's enrollment list. Then, the question: where's the best "natural break"?

So would Cody, now 12th at 662.347, suddenly be big enough for 4A -- even though Riverton is 11th with the ADM of 739.501? Would Jackson at 653.460, be bumped up too? And is Star Valley at 600 big enough? Do you include Star Valley, Cody and Jackson in a 14-team 4A? Or only Cody and Jackson in a 13-team 3A? Or only Cody in a 12-team 4A despite a "natural break" between 11 and 12? Then, logistically, how do you organize an 11-school Class 4A?

Final summation? None, really. This is all guesswork right now. There is no guarantee the WHSAA board will pass the proposal that includes the "natural break" phrasing. And there's no guarantee on how the ADM numbers the WHSAA will receive in the fall will come together.

But somewhere, somehow, the perfect storm is brewing.

Maybe even in Wilson.

Posted by patrick.schmiedt@trib.com

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(7) Comments

Posted by: SportsLlama on June 9, 2008 12:11PM EST

First of all Patrick, I appreciate all of your attendance at these meetings and the stories you do on them.

The main issue I seem to have with the 4A Classification right now is that the WHSAA seems to be stuck in a two-year cycle of thinking.

What I mean is, they seem to think that it's okay to revisit classification every two years. This is not a good idea for themselves or for any of the schools swapping back and forth.

How about a long-term plan that would keep the classifications the same for the next 10 years unless certain population elements trigger clauses in their proposals. When I hear the idea of moving Riverton, SV, Jackson and Cody around every couple of years to satisfy an idea on school enrollment that is quirky at best, it makes my stomach churn.

For our money here in Star Valley, I think we've made peace with it. We're not planning on moving back down. For my money I've always thought a five-class plan similar to the football makeup makes the most sense.

And, here's a little historical info on your Cheesemakers reference. The Star Valley Athletic Club officially adopted the mascot name of Cheesemakers in 1937 and held it until 1948 when the student body officers, citing a need to change the name for various reasons ranging from reasons such as it was not an appropriate name for an athletic team, to the fact that it was far too long and expensive to put on uniforms. So, the change from Cheesemakers to the current Braves took place AFTER the football season of 1948 and before the basketball season of 1948-49. So that school year, the football team were Cheesemakers and the baskerball team were Braves. We actually have "throwback" merchandise for the Cheesemakers but I don't know that it's appropriate to post a link here. Anyway, this is one of my obsessions as Patrick knows, so I thought I'd throw in a little bit o' history.

Posted by: rangerfan on June 9, 2008 2:38PM EST

I agree sportsllama. The constant shifting of schools dilutes the rivalries that have taken years to develop. I know for me here in k-town it was dissapointing to go into a mountain view game realizing they weren't conference. Sure we still have heated games but being a "conference" game adds a little more to the ante. Also there is the possiblility of Kemmerer going to 2A after next year. Instead of Mt. View, Lyman, Pinedale, worland Powell trips we will have to gear up for Big Horn, greybull, Wind River, Rocky Mountain and Sundance. This has nothing to do with the quality of programs of those latter schools I mentioned and more to do with tradition and fan/player familiarity with the other program. And as stated by sportsllama-if we bounce between 2A and 3A 3 times over the next 10 years it makes the situation worse. Anyway just my 2 cents. I think there are other schools that feel the same way.

Posted by: lyards on June 10, 2008 1:38AM EST

I think the abstract of natural breaks and the thought of a certain number in each classification is what causes the flaws. How about setting an adm break number and when a school rises above it they enter that classification. If this means there are only 8 teams in one classification and 20+ in another, so be it.

I also think anything above three classifications in any sports season is too many for 70 some total high schools.

Posted by: tmillerwyo on June 10, 2008 12:44PM EST

Everyone in WYO (except the SEWAC) seems to think a conference must contain schools of the same classification. A conference should contain schools of similar size (but not necessarily same classification), from a close geographic area, and similar sports programs. Rivalries are then created when schools participate against each other in different sports (year after year), and must interact off the playing field (court, mat, etc.) because they all go to the same movies, grocery stores, gas stations, etc. Then use a power-rating system to seed teams into district (or regionals). This power-rating system should be based on a weighted winning percentage. Meaning wins within 4A are worth more than wins in 3A and so on. WHSAA needs someone with a sports and statistical backgrounds.

Lyards, what would your break-points be? Put 1/3 the schools in each classification? So the top 23 teams would go within the top classification? Good luck Newcastle (264) competing against East (2197). Or should the break-points be so the enrollment-distribution factor (log(3, 2197/20) = 4.277) in each classification is the same (or as close as possible). Then the 3 classifications would be:

1. 16 teams: Powell (525) to East (2197)

2. 24 teams: Riverside (125) to Douglas (505)

3. 30 teams: Ten Sleep (20) to Wind River (119)

That's a better solution, but you can't get a better solution with only 3 classifications.

The limitations of classifying schools in WYO are:

1. Travel - which not only includes long distances, but bad weather and mountains.

2. Low number of schools (70)

3. High enrollment-distribution factor (2197/20 = 110)

These physical restrictions make an optimal solution impossible and a good solution very difficult to find.

Posted by: Big High School Fan on June 10, 2008 1:43PM EST

Hey Patrick, This is off this subject, but what did you think about the WY-SD all-star games. I think I saw you in Gillette on Friday night. I thought the mens team played well. The ladies played well also but came up a bit short. I thought the men played as a "team". It was fun to watch.

Posted by: Patrick Schmiedt on June 11, 2008 5:35PM EST

lyards -- That's what the WHSAA did for a long time. I remember the cutoff for 1A used to be 104 students, and every year several schools would consistently come in at 99, 101, 102, 98.... Certain schools learned how to play that system.

Big Fan -- Yes, I was there on Friday. The one thing I noticed about the Wyoming boys was that all five players on the floor at any time were a threat from anywhere. All of them were comfortable stepping out behind the 3-point line, and I think that's why you saw such high-scoring games. I only got to see the girls on Friday (in their loss) and it felt like their legs just gave way in the fourth.

tmillerwyo, you bring up a ton of good points here. Reclassification never satisfies everyone. I do think that this "natural breaks" proposal is full of land mines that I don't think anyone fully comprehends. I'm afraid that if this does pass in September, every school that's anywhere close to the bottom of its classification will appeal to move down and claim a "natural break" as a reason why.

By the way, keeping classifications for 10 years would be unheard of. The most spread-out reclassification cycle I've heard of is in Utah, and they reclassify every four years. Everyone else in the region is either every year or every two years.

OK, I'm ranting now so I'll stop. :)

--patrick

Posted by: SEWAC alum on June 11, 2008 7:32PM EST

Patrick,

I think that there are two issues with reclassification the standard and application of the enrollments to that standard. Therefore, I like the 10-year cycle. What I think other states do and that the WHSAA should adopt is a single classification standard for the next 10 years but then apply the ADM count to that standard every two years like they do now.

Also, by using the numbers used for state funding, the incentive to "play the system" has been counterbalanced by the incentive to obtain funding. That said, if you look now, there are still a substantial number of schools that have an enrollment in the 95-104 range. I know that for the bulk of my time in high school, our enrollment was in that range and I graduated in a class of 24.

Finally, I do think that the SEWAC has the conference scheduling right and that is a model that more regions should adopt. When I was in school we had 7 teams (before Seton's closure) and that accounted for 6 football games and 12 basketball games each year. There was even a conference track meet the week before regionals. Once Albin was added to the schedule, the basketball season was pretty much taken care of and all but about two games were within 90 minutes of our school.

I agree that 3 classifications should about do the trick and I submit that, once quadrant-based regional differences are taken into account, tmillerwyo's breaks almost hit the "natural breaks" that I suspect the WHSAA will look at. Take a look at the breaks between Powell and the next largest school. Also, take a look at the jump in enrollment around 250 or 300. My guess is that will be a source for a "natural break."